Global Economic Conditions Survey

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the most comprehensive surveys of its kind, both for its number of respondents and for the range of economic variables it monitors. IMA and ACCA members from around the world share their insider views on the macro-economic environment as they see it. Within themed countries and regions, the GECS is regarded as a good predictor of GDP growth. Its correlations with the VIX, or “fear,” index are well-established. It is a trusted source for gauging the overall performance of the global economy.

Three levels of analysis are provided:

• Global: Providing an overall picture of respondent confidence
• Thematic: Weighing in on socio-political trends
• Regional: Interpreting policy changes, government actions, and current events in 9 regions

Key Findings of the Second Quarter 2023 Survey

• The steady improvement in global confidence stalled in Q2 2023, but there is no evidence of a potential downturn in the near future.
• Both “fear indices,” measured by concerns that customers and suppliers may go out of business, continued to improve, which suggests that there is little worry about the impact of higher interest rates, recession risks, or the growing number of bankruptcies.
• Confidence rose in North America for the fourth consecutive quarter, signaling that the U.S. economy may continue to defy predictions of a recession.
• Confidence fell sharply in Asia Pacific and Western Europe, which dropped from a significant boost in Q1.
• Overall, confidence rebounding seems to have come to an end but there is hope that in the coming quarters, global and regional confidence can continue to bounce back.