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The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the most comprehensive surveys of its kind, both for its number of respondents and for the range of economic variables it monitors. IMA and ACCA members from around the world share their insider views on the macro-economic environment as they see it. Within themed countries and regions, the GECS is regarded as a good predictor of GDP growth. Its correlations with the VIX, or “fear,” index are well-established. It is a trusted source for gauging the overall performance of the global economy.
Three levels of analysis are provided:
- Global: Providing an overall picture of respondent confidence
- Thematic: Weighing in on socio-political trends
- Regional: Interpreting policy changes, government actions, and current events in 9 regions
Key Findings of the First Quarter 2023 Survey
- Global confidence continued to improve in Q1 2023, despite still being lower than the same time one year ago.
- Both “fear indices,” measured by concern that customers and suppliers may go out of business, improved, as worries about suppliers were the lowest since 2020.
- Confidence in Western Europe improved by 30 points as the economy comes to terms with the war in Ukraine and a mild winter that allowed energy prices to return to pre-conflict levels.
- Confidence also rose in North America, Asia-Pacific and South Asia, with confidence dropping in the Middle East and Africa.
- Overall, confidence over the past 12 months is lower than one year ago, but with increased policy rates, there is a potential for growth in the second half of 2023.